On Saturday, the US and Britain had flown a fourth round of bombings, directed at 18 Houthi military targets. The BBC says that they were directed at “storage facilities, drones, air defence systems, radars and a helicopter of the militant movement.”

A Houthi government spokesman downplayed the impact of the bombings and asserted that there was nothing the US could do about the movement’s Red Sea attacks.

If the US Air Force and the Royal Air Force commanders really think that a few bombing raids can knock out the Houthi capabilities, they haven’t been paying attention. The Saudis, the UAE and other members of a coalition bombed Yemen intensively from 2015 until 2021, as Sarah G. Phillips pointed out. At the end of the war the Houthis were still in control of 80% of the Yemeni population of some 33 million, who live on about a third of the land area of the country. They have certainly hidden away most of their munitions, having had to operate under aerial bombardment for almost a decade, and the targets being hit by the US and the UK are likely inconsequential.

Nationalist troops of the internationally recognized government of President Rashad al-Alimi have contained the Houthi forces to the south and the east but were never able to push them out of the most populous regions of the country in the north. I recently published a paper on how the United Arab Emirates worked with southern secessionists to establish control of the littoral of the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden, but that is a thin sliver of southern territory.

[By the way, broadcast journalists, Houthi is pronounced like “who the” in English — Arabic has a “th” sound. I don’t know why the Americans keep saying Hootie.]

Reuters reports that about $1 trillion of goods is transported through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal annually, on some 19,000 vessels. That is about 30% of global seaborne trade, and it comes to about 12% of total world commerce. About 10% of global energy supplies go through this route.

Hindustan Times Video: “Red Sea On The Boil: American Ship Attacked; Houthis Reiterate Support To Palestinians | Watch”

The volume of goods transported through the Red Sea has fallen between 42% and 66% since the Houthis began attacking container ships. Many ships are going around the Cape of Good Hope and up the coast of West Africa, adding some 10 days to the journey from Asia to Europe, and upping the cost. Countries in the region have taken an economic hit. Egypt has suffered a 40% fall in Suez Canal revenues.

UNCTAD says that “Average container shipping spot rates from Shanghai in early February 2024 more than doubled – up by 122% compared to early December 2023. The rates from Shanghai to Europe more than tripled, jumping by 256%.”

China’s $1.8 billion in investments in Africa has also been placed in jeopardy, and the Chinese portion of Djibouti port has been idled.

The Israeli port of Eilat has apparently been idled, and occasionally has to fend off Houthi ballistic missiles. About 5% of Israel’s imports by sea used to come in through Eilat.

The easiest way to stop this economic disruption, which could have an impact on supply chains and prices that echoes the COVID-19 era of 2021-2023, is for President Biden to cut off arms and ammunition to the mad bomber, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Rising prices and supply chain problems would not be good for Biden’s reelection bid.

The Helpers of God militia is supported by many Yemenis of the Zaydi Shiite persuasion, a form of Shiite Islam that is closer to Sunnism and which does not have ayatollahs or some of the distinctive rituals of the Iranian and Iraqi Twelver Shiism. The militia’s leader is Abdul Malik al-Houthi, who announced this past week an escalation of attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Although the Houthis receive some money and arms from Iran, from all accounts it is a minor factor. They are an Arab, Yemeni movement with their own motivations and they have a weapons-making capacity of their own. The Helpers of God have become the de facto government of most people in Yemen and they tax them for revenue. It is not at all clear that an energy exporter like Iran would want Red Sea shipping disrupted.

It is thought to be the biggest set of demonstrations since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv to demand that the extremist government of Binyamin Netanyahu strike a deal to exchange Palestinians held prisoner in Israel (many of them held without charge or trial) for hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Fascist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich appears to have spoken for the government last week when he said that rescuing the over 100 hostages “is not the most important thing.”

The police also pushed back a crowd attempting to block the Ayalon Lanes intercity freeway at Tel Aviv.

Elsewhere in the city, thousands gathered, among them families with a member held hostage in Gaza. They raised placards demanding an exchange-of-prisoners deal and the release of Israeli hostages.

At the residence of Israeli President Isaac Herzog in the Tzahala neighborhood of Tel Aviv, hundreds came out to demand immediate elections. Netanyahu is widely hated in Israel, and only 17% in polls say they would vote for his Likud Party again.

Al Jazeera English Video: “Israel anti-govt protests: Demonstrators call for an early election”

Numerous other towns and cities also witnessed demonstrations.

A similar small rally for new elections was held in Beersheba.

In Jerusalem, about a thousand people participated in a protest march, also demanding a hostage deal, as well as new elections. They proceeded from the prime minister’s residence to Paris Square.

Hundreds also protested at Caesarea, closing the main drag and edging toward a residence in the city owned by Netanyahu. Police detained a woman for investigation.

Haaretz adds that the protesters in Tel Aviv were carrying torches and marching toward the Defense Headquarters when the water cannon was unleashed on them. The center-left newspaper quotes a protest leader as saying, “The police created this mess. The number of protesters was not greater than in previous weeks. When they activated the water cannon … they turned it into a significant event that drew people.”

MSNBC Video: Israeli Hostage speaks out against Netanyahu: “‘They just left us there to die’: Israeli hostage held in Gaza shares experience

Haaretz also says that of the 400 demonstrators in Beersheba, 100 were family members of two Israelis of Palestinian heritage (presumably Druze) who were being held in Gaza. It reports, “Shaban al-Sayed, the father of Hisham al-Sayed, who has been held by Hamas since 2015, and Ali Alziadna, the brother of Yosef Alziadna, who is currently being held hostage by Hamas, and uncle of released hostage Bilal Alziadna, spoke at the protest.”

Haaretz also quotes a family member of a hostage at a small demonstration in Haifa as saying that the Netanyahu government and its “deranged messianic envoys” are making enemies of the families of the hostages.

Huge weekly demonstrations against the Netanyahu government had roiled Israel before the Hamas attack.

They pointed to the obligations laid on states by the Third Geneva Convention to ensure respect for the law: “States, whether neutral, allied or enemy, must do everything reasonably in their power to ensure respect for the Conventions by others that are Party to a conflict. This duty to ensure respect by others comprises both a negative and a positive obligation. Under the negative obligation, High Contracting Parties may neither encourage, nor aid or assist in violations of the Conventions by Parties to a conflict. Under the positive obligation, they must do everything reasonably in their power to prevent and bring such violations to an end.”

They also called for a halt to all transfers of arms to Hamas.

The joint statement said, “All States must ‘ensure respect’ for international humanitarian law by parties to an armed conflict, as required by 1949 Geneva Conventions and customary international law. States must accordingly refrain from transferring any weapon or ammunition – or parts for them – if it is expected, given the facts or past patterns of behaviour, that they would be used to violate international law.”

The experts added, “Such transfers are prohibited even if the exporting State does not intend the arms to be used in violation of the law – or does not know with certainty that they would be used in such a way – as long as there is a clear risk.”

They slammed private arms manufacturers as well, saying “They have not publicly demonstrated the heightened human rights due diligence required of them and accordingly risk complicity in violations.”

As for states, they observed, “International law does not enforce itself. All States must not be complicit in international crimes through arms transfers. They must do their part to urgently end the unrelenting humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.”

They cited approvingly the decision of an appeals court in the Netherlands forbidding the export to Israel from that country of spare parts for the F-35 fighter jet. A Dutch news site quoted Judge Bas Boele as saying, “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk that the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law.” I also noted that the NL Times added that the court said, “Israel does not take sufficient account of the consequences of its attacks for the civilian population. Israel’s attacks on Gaza have resulted in a disproportionate number of civilian casualties, including thousands of children.”

They noted that the Dutch court of appeals pointed to indiscriminate bombing, the destruction of 60% of civilian homes, damage to hospitals, schools, mosques and other facilities, the displacement of 85% of the population, and the very high civilian death toll as indications that Israel is violating the laws of war.

The experts also pointed to the January 26 preliminary injunction against Israel by the International Court of Justice, which found the genocide case lodged against Tel Aviv by South Africa to be plausible and ordered that acts that constitute genocide under international law be halted by Israel.

They said, “The need for an arms embargo on Israel is heightened by the International Court of Justice’s ruling on 26 January 2024 that there is a plausible risk of genocide in Gaza and the continuing serious harm to civilians since then. This necessitates halting arms exports in the present circumstances.”

The 1948 Genocide Convention forbids countries from exporting arms into a situation where it is plausible that genocide is taking place.

The experts said, “State officials involved in arms exports may be individually criminally liable for aiding and abetting any war crimes, crimes against humanity or acts of genocide. All States under the principle of universal jurisdiction, and the International Criminal Court, may be able to investigate and prosecute such crimes.”

Israel’s main arms suppliers since October have been The United States, Germany, France, Britain, Canada and Australia. The experts are saying that the politicians and military men making these arms transfers to Israel could end up being prosecuted for complicity in war crimes, including the crime of genocide.

TRT World Video: “Israeli air strikes kill at least 104 people in Gaza in 24 hours”

Some countries have already halted arms shipments to Israel. They include not only the Netherlands but also Spain, Belgium’s Walloon regional government and Italy. The OHCHR says they lauded the Japanese company Itochu Corporation, as well, for ceasing exports to Israel.

The experts noted an obligation on UN member states to uphold international humanitarian law and urged that states take the following steps with Israel:

Diplomatic dialogue and protests;

– Technical assistance to promote compliance and accountability;

– Sanctions on trade, finance, travel, technology or cooperation;

– Referral to the Security Council and the General Assembly;

– Proceedings at the International Court of Justice;

– Support for investigations by the International Criminal Court or other international legal mechanisms;

– National criminal investigations using universal jurisdiction and civil suits; and

– Requesting a meeting of the parties to the Geneva Conventions.

Note that the ICJ proceedings have already been initiated. The Security Council has three times voted to impose a ceasefire, but the Biden administration vetoed it in each case. The General Assembly has also voted for a ceasefire but has no executive power.

The OHCHR press release listed the experts:

Ben Saul, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism; Margaret Satterthwaite, Special Rapporteur on the Independence of Judges and Lawyers; Cecilia M. Bailliet, Independent Expert on human rights and international solidarity; Claudia Mahler, Independent Expert on the enjoyment of all human rights by older persons; Farida Shaheed, Special Rapporteur on the right to education; Livingstone Sewanyana, Independent Expert on the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order; Surya Deva, Special Rapporteur on the right to development; Attiya Waris, Independent Expert on foreign debt, other international financial obligations and human rights; Ashwini K.P., Special Rapporteur on contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance; Olivier De Schutter, Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights; Paula Gaviria Betancur, Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons; Siobhán Mullally, Special Rapporteur on trafficking in persons, especially women and children; Tomoya Obokata, Special Rapporteur on contemporary forms of slavery, including its causes and consequences; Carlos Salazar Couto (Chair-Rapporteur), Sorcha MacLeod, Jovana Jezdimirovic Ranito, Chris M. A. Kwaja, Ravindran Daniel, Working Group on the use of mercenaries; Robert McCorquodale (Chair-Rapporteur), Fernanda Hopenhaym (Vice-Chair), Pichamon Yeophantong, Damilola Olawuyi, Elzbieta Karska, Working Group on business and human rights; Barbara G. Reynolds (Chair), Dominique Day, Bina D’Costa, Working Group of Experts on People of African Descent; Balakrishnan Rajagopal, Special Rapporteur on the right to adequate housing; Dorothy Estrada Tanck (Chair), Claudia Flores, Ivana Krstić, Haina Lu, and Laura Nyirinkindi, Working group on discrimination against women and girls; and Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967; Reem Alsalem, Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls, its causes and consequences; Fabián Salvioli, Special Rapporteur on truth, justice, reparation and guarantees of non-recurrence.

The statement is endorsed by: Aua Baldé (Chair-Rapporteur), Gabriella Citroni (Vice-Chair), Angkhana Neelapaijit, Grażyna Baranowska, Ana Lorena Delgadillo Perez, Working Group on enforced or involuntary disappearances; Mary Lawlor, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders; Nicolas Levrat, Special Rapporteur on minority issues; and David R. Boyd, Special Rapporteur on human rights and the environment.

The Special Rapporteurs, Independent Experts and Working Groups are part of what is known as the Special Procedures of the Human Rights Council. Special Procedures, the largest body of independent experts in the UN Human Rights system, is the general name of the Council’s independent fact-finding and monitoring mechanisms that address either specific country situations or thematic issues in all parts of the world. Special Procedures’ experts work on a voluntary basis; they are not UN staff and do not receive a salary for their work. They are independent from any government or organisation and serve in their individual capacity.

The figure of 85,750 is a worst case scenario and deaths would reach that level only if the military assault on Gaza escalates and if the poor hygienic conditions of the 1.9 displaced Palestinians cause epidemics.

But if an immediate ceasefire were achieved and no epidemics break out, a further 6,550 excess deaths would occur, or 11,580 if there are epidemics.

If there is no epidemic and if the Israeli military campaign continues on its current pattern without a significant escalation, then the death toll would rise by 74,290 over the next six months.

Since the Israeli military had already killed at least 29,313 people in Gaza, 70% of them women and children and the bulk of the remainder being non-combatant men, the study is saying that the total death toll is now fated to rise to between 35,800 and 40,893 even if not another shot is fired.

If Israel goes on fighting for another six months just at its current pace, the death toll rises to 103,603 in the absence of major disease outbreaks.

It seems unlikely that the fighting will go on at the current pace for six months. But it seems highly likely that there will be epidemics. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported yesterday,

The dire water and sanitation conditions are also aggravating the state of health in Gaza, with more than 300,000 reported cases of acute respiratory infections and more than 200,000 reported cases of acute watery diarrhoea, of whom more than half are children under five, among other outbreaks.

The authors of the “Crisis in Gaza” report say, “Our projections indicate that even in the best-case ceasefire scenario, thousands of excess deaths would continue to occur, mainly due to the time it would take to improve water, sanitation and shelter conditions, reduce malnutrition, and restore functioning healthcare services in Gaza.”

The report only appears to consider deaths from military attacks and disease, and factors in hunger mainly as enabling the latter. People weak with hunger cannot fight off diseases and famine and epidemics go along with one another.

OCHA quotes Dr. Mike Ryan of the World Heath Organization as saying, “Hunger and disease are a deadly combination. Hungry, weakened and deeply traumatised children are more likely to get sick, and children who are sick, especially with diarrhea, cannot absorb nutrients well. It’s dangerous, and tragic, and happening before our eyes.”

Palestinians are also exposed to the cold and wet weather of February in the Levant, which weakens immunity.

France 24 English Video: “War-torn Gaza children ‘disproportionately impacted’ by acute malnutrition, family separation, death “

But I think they should have considered deaths from hunger alone, since the Israeli government appears to be deliberately keeping the civilian, noncombatant population malnourished by limiting the number of aid trucks, the goods of which are allowed to enter the Strip. The fascist Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has refused to allow US shipments of flour to reach Gaza, reneging on a promise made to President Joe Biden by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. On February 5, Israeli troops in Gaza fired on a food aid convoy they had previously authorized, destroying the food.

OCHA points out that the relief organization Anera “highlighted the ‘silent crisis’ of hunger-induced deaths: ‘In the tragic circumstances of starvation in Gaza, there’s a compounding issue: many who perish from starvation-related symptoms aren’t accurately documented. Their deaths often get attributed to other physical causes, masking the true toll of starvation.’”

I have argued, based on Gaza health statistics, that thousands are already dying silently of hunger in Gaza. I wrote, “OCHA says that the Israeli campaign has left 378,000 people at catastrophic phase 5 levels of starvation. US AID explains that Phase 5 levels of starvation indicate that “acute malnutrition levels exceed 30 percent, and more than 2 per 1,000 people are dying each day.” Given that 378,000 people are being categorized by the UN as at phase 5, this definition suggests that 756 Palestinians in Gaza are dying of hunger each day, which comes to a projected 22,680 deaths from starvation over the next month.”

OCHA observes,

“Catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity are reportedly intensifying across Gaza, with growing reports of families struggling to feed their children and a rising risk of hunger-induced deaths in northern Gaza. The Global Nutrition Cluster is reporting a steep rise in malnutrition among children and pregnant and breastfeeding women in the Gaza Strip. The situation is especially serious in northern Gaza where 1 in 6 children under the age of two (15.6 per cent) who were screened at IDP shelters and health centres in January were found to be acutely malnourished, a decline in a population’s nutritional status that is unprecedented globally in three months. In comparison, 5 per cent of children under the age of two in Rafah were found to be acutely malnourished, evidence that access to humanitarian aid can help prevent the worst outcomes.”

Let me just reiterate that the finding is that among the 150,000 people left in North Gaza, 1 in six children under the age of two are “severely malnourished.” Severe malnutrition has skyrocketed under the Israeli military’s reckless disregard for civilian life.

The London/ Johns Hopkins study concurs: “Before the current conflict, the global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalences were low amongst children 6-59 months (3.2% and 0.4%, respectively). As of 7 Feb 2024, we project they had already risen significantly (14.1% and 2.8%, respectively), albeit with likely geographical variations.”

They don’t think a ceasefire will help with this issue of child malnutrition very much, with GAM and SAM only reduced slightly — “(12.4% and 2.7% at 6 months, respectively.” In contrast, they fear that if the military campaign continues for six months, child malnutrition will increase many times over.

As for the possibility of epidemics, they write: “If epidemics also occur, those that are projected to cause the most excess deaths are cholera (3,595-8,971), polio (both wild-type and vaccine-derived; 1,1145-2,444), measles (260-793), and meningococcal meningitis (24-143).”

So cholera is the big threat and could cause almost 10,000 deaths over the next six months all on its own. When I lived in Eritrea in the 1960s I knew a teenager who contracted cholera. He survived, but spent days expelling liquid from all his orifices. It was horrible. You die of dehydration.

The citation for the report is: Zeina Jamaluddine, Zhixi Chen, Hanan Abukmail, Sarah Aly, Shatha Elnakib, Gregory Barnsley et al. (2024). Crisis in Gaza: Scenario-based health impact projections. Report One: 7 February to 6 August 2024. London, Baltimore: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Johns Hopkins University. The pdf is here.

The human rights experts held a news conference on Monday to call for an impartial inquiry into the abuses apparently committed by Israeli troops against women and girls, including murder, rape, and sexual assault. They expressed extreme concern at the “horrifying reports” that had reached them

International human rights experts called for an independent investigation into suspected Israeli violations committed against Palestinian women and girls, including murder, rape, and sexual assault. The experts expressed their deep concern about the “horrific reports” that revealed cases of rape and threats of sexual assault by Israeli forces during their arbitrary detention of Palestinian women and girls in Gaza and the Palestinian West Bank. They said there were “credible and conclusive allegations of blatant violations” and that women and girls were victims of arbitrary execution, often alongside members of their families, including children. In a communique, they expressed their shock at the reports of deliberate targeting and extra-judicial killing of Palestinian women and children in places where they sought safety or while they were fleeing.

These human rights experts were appointed by the UN Human Rights Council, but are independent and not UN representatives. I give their names below.

TRT World Video: “Israeli violations against Palestinian girls, women in Gaza”

They pointed to the arbitrary detention of hundreds of Palestinian women, among them human rights defenders, journalists, and humanitarian activists in Gaza and the West Bank. They said, “Many were exposed to inhumane and degrading treatment and to severe beatings. They were deprived of menstrual pads during their periods, of food, and of medicine.”

The Office of the High Commission on Human Rights quotes the experts as saying, “We are particularly distressed by reports that Palestinian women and girls in detention have also been subjected to multiple forms of sexual assault, such as being stripped naked and searched by male Israeli army officers. At least two female Palestinian detainees were reportedly raped while others were reportedly threatened with rape and sexual violence.”

OHCHR adds, “They also noted that photos of female detainees in degrading circumstances were also reportedly taken by the Israeli army and uploaded online.”

They spoke of their dismay at reports of Palestinian women in prison being subjected to multiple forms of sexual assault, including strip searching by male troops of the Israeli army. They demanded an independent, unimpeachable, comprehensive, urgent and effective investigation into these assaults, with full Israeli cooperation.

They said that they had evidence that at least two imprisoned Palestinian women were raped, while others were threatened with rape and sexual violence. They said there were indications that Palestinian girls and women were deliberately targeted and extra-judicially executed in places of asylum or during their attempts to escape. Some of the latter were waving pieces of white cloth but were killed by the Israeli army.

According to OHCHR, the communique concluded, “Taken together, these alleged acts may constitute grave violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, and amount to serious crimes under international criminal law that could be prosecuted under the Rome Statute. . . . Those responsible for these apparent crimes must be held accountable and victims and their families are entitled to full redress and justice,”

The OHCHR notes that the experts were “Reem Alsalem, Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls, its causes and consequences; Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967; Dorothy Estrada Tanck (Chair), Claudia Flores, Ivana Krstić, Haina Lu, and Laura Nyirinkindi, Working group on discrimination against women and girls. The experts are part of what is known as the Special Procedures of the Human Rights Council. Special Procedures, the largest body of independent experts in the UN human rights system.”

The Israeli mission in Geneva hastened to denounce the communique, charging that the international human rights rapporteurs were animated by a hatred of Israel rather than a devotion to the truth. It said that the Israeli authorities had not received any complaints but were prepared to investigate the Israeli security forces if there were credible allegations and evidence.

It is a particularly ugly custom of Israeli officials to meet any criticism with charges of “hating Israel” or hating Jews, which they conflate with the former. Tel Aviv owes an apology to these internationally respected human rights experts, even if they are only women.

The Security Council What’s in Blue site says that the US text calls for a “temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as practicable, based on the formula of all hostages being released.”

According to Borger the draft goes on to state that the Security Council “determines that under current circumstances a major ground offensive into Rafah would result in further harm to civilians and their further displacement including potentially into neighboring countries, which would have serious implications for regional peace and security, and therefore underscores that such a major ground offensive should not proceed under current circumstances”.

What’s in Blue says that Algeria’s resolution in favor of an immediate ceasefire, to be debated Tuesday morning, will be vetoed by the United States. Algeria developed its resolution on the basis of the January 26 ruling by the International Court of Justice issuing a preliminary injunction against Israel on the grounds that it is plausibly committing genocide against the Palestinians of Gaza.

The US insists that any resolution condemn the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel, which other Security Council members have been unwilling to include, since they do not wish to couple it with the issue of Israel’s disproportionate response in Gaza. Algeria’s text lacks such a reference, though it does call for the release of the dozens of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

ABC 7 Chicago Video: “US circulates rival UN resolution for temporary Gaza cease-fire

It appears that after it vetoes the Algerian resolution, the US will table its own call, which is more favorable to the Israeli war effort. It asks not for an immediate permanent ceasefire but only a temporary cessation of hostilities as soon as Israel finds it “practicable.”

It is, however, widely believed that any “temporary” ceasefire would likely be the de facto end of this Gaza campaign. Israel will find it difficult to start the war back up thereafter, especially in the March-April Ramadan fasting period when there are special sensibilities among Muslims worldwide.

The US had declined to call for a ceasefire, even a temporary one, for the past couple of months since the last pause ended. The Biden administration cautioned against Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s plan for an invasion of Rafah, but did not seem inclined to do more than frown about it.

So the new resolution, however hedged about and favorable to Israel it may be, is nevertheless a huge about-face for Mr. Biden. It puts him on a collision course with Mr. Netanyahu, who says he insists on the invasion of Rafah.

Why is Biden at long last taking even a feeble practical stand at the UN?

Let me broach some informed guesses in response to this question.

First, Biden is getting enormous pressure from Egypt and other Muslim states to forestall a Rafah campaign that would force the Palestinians of Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula. The Wall Street Journal and other right wing US newspapers may think that there is nothing you couldn’t bribe the Egyptians into accepting. Receiving 2.2 million Palestinian refugees into a Sinai Peninsula which is already a severe security problem, however, is not acceptable to Abdelfattah al-Sisi and the rest of the officer corps. No amount of foreign aid or debt forgiveness could cover the enormous costs such a development would incur for Egypt. The US draft resolution refers obliquely to the Egypt dilemma, which suggests that Biden is trying to mollify Cairo. And it isn’t only Egypt. Biden’s team, including Antony Blinken, are auditioning for the role of Jared Kushner 2.0 by trying to add Saudi Arabia to the Abraham Accords. My suspicion is that Mohamed Bin Salman has told Blinken hell will freeze over first, if Israel goes through with a Rafah massacre. The Saudis may hate Hamas, but they hate unrest among their own citizens more, and the Saudi populace is boiling with anger.

Second, Biden is probably tired of having all his campaign rallies disrupted by people shouting “How many kids did you kill today?” Biden’s win in 2020 depended heavily on the youth and African American vote, and both groups are deeply unsettled by Biden’s complaisance toward Netanyahu’s butchery. The president cannot afford to lose Black voters, many of whom identify with the Palestinians. This war is disastrous for Biden’s reelection campaign and it is incredible that his team cannot see that.

Third, and this is just speculation on my part, the Ukrainians are losing the war with Russia because they don’t have enough artillery shells. President Volodymyr Zelensky more or less admitted it at last weekend’s Munich Security Conference. It could well be that the Israelis are proving such artillery shell hogs that the Pentagon is beginning to have to stiff Zelensky to keep the Israelis supplied. A Rafah campaign would put enormous pressure on the ammunition supply train, which is already stretched to the breaking point, from all accounts.

Fourth, Biden has asked Netanyahu to protect civilian noncombatants in Gaza, and has been rebuffed by Tel Aviv. Netanyahu and his ultra-Right Kahanaist government say they will do as they please regardless of Biden’s wishes. Leaking this draft resolution to the newspapers and then pushing it at the Security Council is a way for Biden to pressure Netanyahu and his cabinet to wind down the war without a further massive bloodbath in Rafah. Exerting pressure through the UN gets Biden off the hot seat with pro-Israel voters, since if the resolution passes it will be multi-lateral. It is therefore preferable in an election year to standing up to Netanyahu by, for example, cutting off ammunition, which Biden could do.

He continued, “It is not a war between soldiers and soldiers. It is a war between a well equipped army on the one hand and women and children on the other.”

Lula is not the first world leader to compare Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to Hitler over his actions in Gaza — Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan made the same comparison.

Since Hitler murdered six million Jews, the comparison is hurtful. It could also be rejected on grounds of scale. Hitler not only killed all those European Jews, he also killed 6 million Poles. And consider Ukraine: “of the 41.7 million people living in Ukrainian Soviet Republic before the war, only 27.4 million were alive in Ukraine in 1945. Official data says that at least 8 million Ukrainians lost their lives: 5.5 – 6 million civilians, and more than 2.5 million natives of Ukraine were killed at the front. The data varies between 8 to 14 million killed, however, only 6 million have been identified.”

The Times and the Sunday Times Video: “Brazil’s Lula likens Gaza war to Holocaust”

While Netanyahu’s policies are not like those of Nazi Germany in almost any respect if we consider absolute numbers and consider the scale of killing, Lula is not completely in error if we consider more qualitative aspects of history and look to European fascism as a whole and not just the German National Socialists (who were peculiar in many ways).

FIRST: KEEPING PEOPLE STATELESS ON THE BASIS OF ETHNICITY

For instance, the Fascists stripped citizenship from millions of people and made them stateless, without the rights that come from a direct relationship to a state of their own. Chief Justice Earl Warren defined citizenship as “the right to have rights.”

Hitler took citizenship from German Jews but also from the Roma and from persons of African heritage.

Netanyahu keeps 5.5 million Palestinians in the occupied territories stateless and without citizenship. So his policies in this narrow regard are similar to those of the National Socialists in the 1930s. In essence, the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza are living under something like the Nuremberg Laws. Their establishments and homes are attacked by militant Israeli squatters with impunity in a sort of rolling Kristallnacht.

Note that by Israeli law, Israeli squatters in the occupied Palestinian territories have all the citizenship rights of other Israelis. So the lack of rights on the West Bank is not territorial. It is by ethnicity.

Netanyahu has boasted about derailing the Oslo Peace Accords and presents himself as the only one who can prevent a Palestinian state from being established. He reiterated his opposition to any international diplomatic track that leads to a Palestinian state just this weekend.

SECOND: DEPRIVATION OF BASIC INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS

Another feature of Fascism, underlined by Robert Paxton, is the elimination of individual rights. Israel’s regime over the occupied, stateless Palestinians fully demonstrates this feature. Palestinians can be arrested under “administrative detention” without charge or trial or habeas corpus and held for months or years. We have seen a treatment of detained Palestinians in Gaza that constitutes war crimes. It is alleged that forms of torture are practiced.

THIRD: TOTAL WAR

Netanyahu’s Gaza campaign has demonstrated a reckless disregard for the lives of innocent noncombatants, who make up nearly all of the nearly 30,000 people so far killed, and who have been deprived of domiciles and sufficient food and potable water by the Israeli military.

Total war was adopted as a military strategy by fascist states, according to historian Alan Kramer. One academic summarized his argument: “Kramer indicated a very interesting question regarding the specificity of the kind of war implemented by fascist regimes during the thirties and the forties, characterized by its genocidal nature and opened, according to him, with the colonial war launched by Italy in Abyssinia [Ethiopia] in 1935. Kramer underlined that the specificity of this particular way of waging war typical of fascism would define itself by the final elimination of the «distinction between combatants and non-combatants», pointing how in the six years of this conflict between 350.000 and 760.000 Ethiopians were killed, victims of an asymmetric war based on the overwhelming use of air force, chemical weapons and politics of collective terror against any sign of real or imagined resistance.”

The fascist way of war eliminates the distinction between combatants and non-combatants and wreaks mass death on the latter to achieve military aims. There doesn’t seem much doubt that Netanyahu is waging total war on Gaza and Israel’s President Isaac Herzog and a whole plethora of Israeli officials have repeatedly insisted that there are no innocent civilians in Gaza. This, even though half of Gaza’s population consists children.

Total war easily leads to genocide, of course, which is why the International Court of Justice has found it at least plausible that Netanyahu is waging a genocide in Gaza, attempting to destroy a people in part or in whole because of who they are.

So, no, Netanyahu is not a Hitler. But, yes, his policies bear a strong resemblance to those of inter-war Fascism.

She went on to say, “If Canada someday ever attacked Buffalo, I’m sorry my friends, there would be no Canada the next day, right, right? But think about that, that is a natural reaction. You have a right to defend yourself and to make sure it never happens again, and that is Israel’s right.”

She has since apologized for a “poor choice of words,” not in her full-throated advocacy of genocide but for making Canada the scenario for it. She momentarily forgot that it is only allowed to advocate ethnic cleansing of non-white people. The Gaza conflict is like a UV black light for detecting sociopaths.

There are many things wrong with Hochul’s remark. First, Gaza is recognized by the UN and most countries in the world as an occupied territory over which Israel is the occupying power. It isn’t an independent country. It has no port, airport, or heavy armaments. It is almost completely surrounded by Israel, including from the sea and the skies, and even the Egyptian checkpoint of Gaza is de facto controlled by Israeli policy. Israel has the basic right of self-defense, as do all United Nations member states under its charter. But it doesn’t have the right to wage a total war, to wipe out 30,000 people in Gaza, the bulk of them innocent non-combatants, or to ethnically cleanse 1.9 million people. It has a right to defend itself from the Hamas organization, but not to destroy Gaza. As an occupying power it has a special responsibility to ensure the welfare of the Palestinian non-combatants of Gaza, a responsibility it has abandoned with glee.

NBC News Video: “Humanitarian crisis growing in Gaza”

Second, who in the world says things like “there would be no Canada the next day’? It is never all right to wipe out a whole people. The technical term for that sort of thing is genocide. As an Irish-American, Hochul should be more sympathetic to people being starved by impersonal colonial policy. The British rulers of Ireland during the potato famine believed that distributing food would backfire by making the locals forever dependent on this state largesse, setting them up for more deaths in the future. Nobelist in economics Amartya Sen debunked this theory, versions of which we hear from Republicans today. The only way to stop a famine is for the government to intervene to distribute food. The British also exported food from Ireland while a million were dying of hunger. There were 8 million Irish in 1840. A million died in the famine and a million left, many for the United States and Canada, leaving 5.8 million by 1860 or so.

Israel’s position in Gaza is no less colonial than Britain’s was in Ireland. Today, the Israeli authorities are imposing widespread hunger and thirst on millions of noncombatants, including small children. These policies are not necessary to combat Hamas, they are clearly undertaken for their own sake, as a form of collective punish. One physician who recently volunteered there wrote in the LA Times, “it wasn’t war, it was annihilation.”

The final thing that is wrong with what Hochul said is that we already had a war with Canada, when it was still part of the British Empire, in 1812-1814. The British provoked US ire by trying to restrict its trade with the Napoleonic Empire. American Gen. George McClure burned a Canadian town, and the British forces came down from Canada with First Nations auxiliaries and destroyed a number of American hamlets and towns, and then burned Buffalo, New York (Hochul’s home town) to the ground.

The US Constitution Museum explains,

“American armies invaded Canada in 1812 at three points, but all three campaigns ended in failure. One army surrendered at Detroit at the western end of Lake Erie, a second army surrendered at Queenston Heights at the other end of the lake, and a third army withdrew after little more than a skirmish north of New York. A similar multi-pronged invasion went better in 1813, but only in the West.”

So the 500,000 Canadians weren’t wiped out by the much more populous Americans, and except in the west they fought the U.S. forces to a standstill.

In the aftermath, the British forces invaded Washington, D.C. and burned the White House, the Capitol and the navy shipyard.

So Hochul’s genocidal fantasy doesn’t even accord with history.

Just as it wasn’t possible for the US to polish off British Canada in 1812-1814, it likewise isn’t possible for Israel to polish off the world’s 14.3 million Palestinians, however much its Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, might like to do so.

Politicians who glory in a whole nation abruptly “not existing” should be understood as disturbingly abnormal, and people should stop inviting them to dinner, much less electing them to high office.

Some 78% of Muslim Democrats favored an immediate ceasefire, the same proportion as Democrats in the general public. 57% of Jewish Democrats wanted an immediate ceasefire, while 30% opposed it. Still, that means that a majority of the two religious groups who lean Democratic agree on this principle. Even 54% of Republicans in the general public wanted a ceasefire.

Young Jews and young Muslims are closer to one another than are older Jews and older Muslims. Among Jews 18-29, 54% favor a ceasefire (among Jews over 50 it is only 46%). Among Muslims 18-29, 68% favor a ceasefire (among Muslims over 50 it is 80%). There is only a 14 point spread between young Jewish Americans and young Muslim Americans, whereas there is a 34 point spread among Jewish Americans over 50 and Muslim Americans over 50.

It is interesting to me that almost the same proportion of Catholics (71%) wanted a ceasefire as Muslims (75%). Among Protestants the proportion is 60% and among white evangelicals it is 58%. The latter statistic is also remarkable since white evangelicals are strongly biased in favor of Israel; but even so they want a ceasefire in the horrific Gaza conflict.

Democracy Now! Video: “Incandescent” with Rage: Matt Duss on Voter Anger over Biden Support for Netanyahu & Gaza Assault”

ISPU also asked for views on who is responsible for the war. Among Muslims, 47% blame Hamas and Israel equally for the violence or blame Hamas alone. 40% blame Israel. That is the highest percentage who blamed Israel alone among all American religious groups. But still, more blamed Israel-and-Hamas or blamed Hamas alone (12%).

Protestants and non-affiliated had similar proportions who blamed Israel-and-Hamas equally (34% and 38% respectively).

Some 47% of Catholics blamed Hamas alone, while 51% of Evangelicals put the entire onus on Hamas. Among Jews, 65% blamed Hamas alone.

But note that 10% of Jews blamed Israel alone and 19% blamed Israel-and-Hamas equally, so over a quarter of them generally agreed with Muslims in their point of view on the conflict.

It is heartening to see so much unity on the issue of an immediate ceasefire across party lines and across religious affiliations.

ISPU commissioned Qualtrics to “field the survey to a non-probability online sample of self-identified American Muslims, American Jews, and members of the American general public.” 1,296 surveys were completed from Dec. 22 through January 15 of this year. Muslims filled out 330, jews 316, and the general population 550.